Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Hello and welcome to TaxVibe, a podcast by The Tax Institute. I'm Robyn Jacobson. We love the vibe of Tax and here at The Tax Institute, we do tax differently. In this bonus episode of TaxVibe, you'll get a special insight into our post-Federal Budget reflections. A sneak peek behind the closed doors of our member-only webinar. To see the full webinar and access other member only insights and resources, become a member of The Tax Institute. Head to our website to learn more. We hope you enjoy this episode of TaxVibe.
Welcome to The Tax Institute's webinar addressing the tax measures announced last night in the Federal Budget, 2025-26. I'm Robyn Jacobson, the senior advocate at The Tax Institute. And in this webinar today, I will be the chair and facilitator of the panel session. Thank you for joining us today. This webinar is live and interactive. Joining me on the panel today, we have Tim Sandow, CTA and president of The Tax Institute. We have Julie Abdalla, FTI, head of tax and legal at The Tax Institute, Jonathan Ortner, FTI and partner at Arnold Bloch Leibler. And last but not least, we have Scott Treatt, CTA, who is of course, the CEO of the Tax Institute. So, thank you all for joining me this morning. What I will be doing is drawing on this panel for their reflections, for their insights. It wasn't a what we would call a particularly big budget and certainly will unpack that in a lot more detail. But I first would like to turn to Scott and ask you what your overall reaction to the budget was.
Scott Treatt, CTA
It's an interesting one. The overall reaction, unsurprising. That was probably my comment, because that's got to be one of those. No, not one of it's got to be the lightest budget I've ever seen. I say seen deliberately as opposed to heard, etc., because it wasn't that 90 odd pages of, oh, I don't know how long exactly it was about what was it, about a third or less than a third of the papers that would normally see coming out of a budget, and that I find, that is unsurprising given the timing, like the election's imminent.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
But even if it had been a small budget in length, we might have had a lot of tax measures, but we couldn't even have a lot of them.
Scott Treatt, CTA
So, but it was never expected. I don't think we expected anything in relation to major tax aspects. I think I was a bit surprised that we saw tax cuts come out. Now that I see how it's playing through. I'm not surprised, given the political move that sort of happened. As you look at where it's being introduced now, they're introducing it into Parliament. Those tax cuts alongside the Medicare changes, which are due to take effect from the beginning of this financial year. So, there is a you're already seeing a bit of a jostling around some of these key issues before we're coming into an election. Even being called. It's going to be called over the next few weeks. I think it's quite interesting to look at, still the broader economic context in which this sits. I think it's really changed from what we've seen over the past few years as no substantive changes to that. In my opinion, you've still got bucket loads of debt. We still got those underlying core issues within our system that we've got to address, that we've got to deal with. I think some of the front of mind issues that the budget's trying to address, you've still got the cost-of-living issues. You've still got the education issues. It's still got the structural issues within our system around housing and social support, etc. those structural issues haven't moved. I haven't gone away.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
And Julie will talk about the tax cuts in more detail shortly. But the positioning of this bill, we've got what looks like to be parliamentary sitting days left, 5 to 7 weeks to the election, which is somewhere between the third and the 17th of May. It's going to be one of those three Saturdays. And there's even talk that they may be calling the election as soon as this Friday.
Scott Treatt, CTA
Sure.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
So, positioning all of this and what's going to get through the current Parliament, what's not.
Scott Treatt, CTA
Yeah. But it's interesting. Before we went live, Julie made an observation around the political posturing of where certain measures are placed, etc. and maybe she kind of had her two cents to that. But it's fascinating that if it is only true, that is what actually happens around the Medicaid stuff, the stuff that's needed for this. She the certainty we need in the system. And that's probably the aspect as an institute, we were keen on what is the certainty we can draw out of this. And I know and when the team worked tirelessly through to pull the report together, we tried something different with our members to try to go, right, what is it that we talk of that certain in this environment, given the election as opposed to all these would be announcements because the announcements of the announcements.
Scott Treatt, CTA
But actually, what does it mean to be able to advise people? And that's the piece that, I guess now when I wake up this morning to see the combination of those matters in that one bill, I go, wow, are we in another difficult position here around certainty coming into year end?
Julie Abdalla, FTI
So, we wrote in the, report that we weren't expecting these Tax cuts to be introduced. For an election. Anyway, but we would have expected that for the Medicare threshold changes. And so we've actually seen this in recent times, where a measure is put in a bill that is completely unrelated for different reasons, and pushing things along in the process can be the objective, but it doesn't always work out that way. And so we had, for example, Division 296 measures that were taken out of a different bill. The instant asset right off was in the buy now, pay later, bill. And then that was taken out at the last minute. So, it makes certainty all the more difficult. And it's concerning when it comes to the Medicare levy changes. We want certainty on that as a priority.
Scott Treatt, CTA
Yeah. It's kind of like Robyn, I think I said to you this morning, it's the budget that we didn't need, but we had to have.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Because the optics of having a May election and not having a March budget.
Scott Treatt, CTA
Yeah.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
The key headline figures, deficits as far as the eye can see. And 2025-26 is the first year forecast we’re going to tip over that gross debt of $1 trillion. Quite eye watering figures. So where was the focus of the budget at a macro level.
Scott Treatt, CTA
Well, I think as I said before it was the cost of living aspects. It's those similar, structural issues that we've had in the system for a while. And, you know, around the housing, around the education, the social support, etcetera. But it's fascinating. You already see in the press, like, how are we going to pay for that?
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Yes.
Scott Treatt, CTA
That still remains the question. But you've got to look ahead a number of aspects within our system. And we keep harping on around the need for a holistic tax reform, tax reform, tax reform. And I'm happy to keep saying that until we go blue in the face because like I sit there and say we can throw all these measures out there, but how do we create a sustainable system? Is our system sustainable? And there are a number of questions in preparation for this and I was there going, if I had the opportunity again just to sit down with the treasurer, post this budget and say, right, what questions would I ask? And I put them down here, are we taxing income at the right level? Are we taxing capital and consumption at the right level? Is our tax mix right? And I think if you can't answer yes to those questions, then you don't actually have a sustainable system. And I don't know at the moment that any politician could genuinely answer yes to any of those. Which means then we'll we don't have sustainability. A lot of what we're doing within the budgets remain just tinkering as opposed to creating a sustainable future and having meaningful effect. And so what are we doing about it?
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Before I throw to Jonathan and Tim, for their initial observations of the budget, two things which are always for front of mind when we talk about particularly homeowners and businesses. And I'm referring to interest rates and inflation. So, we have had that first reduction of 25 basis points for the first time since 2020. Given all the rises and the inflation is back within the Reserve Bank's range on paper, but it's still very much having an impact on cost of living for everyone.
Scott Treatt, CTA
Oh, I think that's right. But I don't know that I'd be comfortable being an economist at the moment. Like just so much global uncertainty going on. There's so many things happening in different jurisdictions at different levels and for different reasons, and there's likely to be an impact that flows on to Australia. What that it is exactly. My crystal ball is probably a little dustier than others, so it's going to be interesting to watch how that then plays out and how the overlay of those other issues come through as well.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Thank you. Tim, how are you reading the tea leaves?
Tim Sandow, CTA
Robyn. For me, it feels like it's a bit of a placeholder budget, as in, I had to do something, as Scott said a bit because of the optics, but it sort of feels like I'm wondering if we going to get a second budget later in the year. I mean, we obviously probably will win if there's a change in government, but I think even if there's a, if this government continues, albeit probably with a different mix going forward, are we going to see something later in the year? And as Scott said, there's so much global uncertainty. Maybe the world does look a little bit different in six months’ time. And some of the assumptions that are in it in this budget may change. So, I guess it's a bit of a watch, this space. I think good news out of the budget is, some of the assumptions. Robyn. We're all going to live longer. So, the assumption is that longevity is going up by year for men and women, 86 women and 82 men.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
So more time for Holidays.
Tim Sandow, CTA
That's right. More time for super, and the birth rate has again increased in the next five years as well.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
And this is without Peter Costello, who's encouraging everyone to have that third child.
Tim Sandow, CTA
Correct, its gone from 1.44 to 1.54.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Oh goodness. Significant. Jonathan, your take on the budget.
Jonathon Ortner, FTI
Well, I think to continue to lighten the mood, Australian brewers and beer drinkers can rejoice. Jim Chalmers has announced a freeze on the indexation for beers for two years. So that's good. Saint George Dragons, unfortunately, over my beloved storm also received funding. Why that was chosen, I don't know, but I think the reality is we haven't seen any major tax announcements in the last three budgets. Probably more. Yeah. So do we expect any announcement of substance in a budget like this was going to be, you know, very low on the probability scale. So I'm unsurprised by what has been announced other than for the fact that the tax cuts have been, you know, presented in a way that perhaps they could have designed it differently. So, we're not outlining $17 billion when we're ready, forecasting deficits over the next however many years.
Scott Treatt, CTA
But wouldn't it say the budgets over the past few years, Jonathon, really like where the compliance dollars were going to go and what the policy position was on integrity within our system was really called out loud and clear. And I don't know that those things were within his budget. Not in that same way.
Jonathon Ortner, FTI
Oh. Certainly. There's still I mean, in terms of compliance within the tax system, the spending going through the Tax Avoidance Task Force.
Scott Treatt, CTA
Not like the multinationals because of X, Y and Z should, those bigger theme aspects were absent here. And I do wonder if that's again a deliberate move around. Well, we've got time now for, before the election coming. And we know that those historically in elections it's like every week there's something new. And I do wonder, are we going to see something along those lines over the coming weeks?
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Jonathan, also interesting to be mindful of where we are on the cycle, because traditionally, if a government wants to go harder or bring in a measure that may not be as popular, they are not going to do it weeks out from a federal election, they are much more likely to do it at the beginning of their term, or perhaps even halfway into. Right? Yeah. So, Julie, your reactions, we've talked briefly about the traditional tax cuts, but, the IBMs, this is our favourite expression, the announcement unelected measures. For those of you who are not familiar with the expression, did we see any movement on the IBMs?
Julie Abdalla, FTI
We saw movement on a few, but less than a handful. There is still a long list that weren't addressed, but one thing that is on, or I thought was interesting on this point in the budget paper. In budget paper number two, if you're interested in the payments and receipts tables, there are line items for decisions taken but not announced. And so these are amounts that are attributed to that are not actually announced measures within the budget. And so I'd be expecting to see post budget potentially pre-election announcements that might shed a bit of light on what those amounts are related to. Hopefully that would deal with some of the announcement on inactive measures. But again, we've mentioned certainty already. People want certainty whether they're proceeding with a or amending it or discarding it, abandoning it altogether. People just want to know where they stand as compared to the law.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
And make decisions about where they invest and how they run their businesses and understanding where they stand. Scott, we have talked about what the budget means, but in particular, as we head into an election, if we think about the way we brought up our budget reports in non-election news, we always say the government has proposed that it will or the government is intending to do such and such. But given we are weeks out from an election, what does it really mean when the government says it will do this?
Scott Treatt, CTA
That's the hard thing to answer. Like what is going to eventuate in, let's call it seven weeks’ time, right? What? It is a maximum of seven weeks
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Maximum 7 weeks could be five.
Scott Treatt, CTA
Thought so what is going to actually eventuate at that point? What's going to be the composition of Parliament.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Both houses nice houses not just the Senate, yeah.
Scott Treatt, CTA
At that point of time, therefore where do we stand? I think that overlay still sits there. So the difficulty is, yes, there's been some positions put forward. The positive is we've got some view on it which kind of aligns and I know will come to it around the regulation of the profession. That's I sit there and go, well actually there are elements where we can go with some level of certainty because of both sides of Parliament thing aligned on not doing something.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Yes.
Scott Treatt, CTA
So I think that's the one positive I'd take up the rest as it can go. Well, actually it's going to depend on what Parliament looks like post-election.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
And that's really going to be interesting to watch. Listen, I just noting that we are not yet certain when Parliament is going to resume. There are certainly parliamentary sittings scheduled throughout the year, as we know, with sync by July, that have all certainly by a lot. The new senators have to take up their seats, whether we're going to see any sittings in June before they go into their winter recess in July. We really will depend on the counting of the votes and have the sworn in, the minister's internal housekeeping, and I talk about it, putting the new signs on the doors around Parliament House. So there's a little bit of administration that needs to be sorted. Tim, Where does this leave business sentiment? So when they're looking, yes, we're going the election year. Yes. We've got a whole lot of proposed measures. Again, that's as we move into caretaker mode. Would we see a potential slowdown in business decisions, or do you think it will just be business as usual?
Tim Sandow, CTA
Robyn, I think it depends on how much of an influence you think things like tax have on on business decisions. But I'm probably not best to, to speak about sort of that overall business confidence, but certainly I mean from my perspective, I mean I'm thinking in Adelaide, it does feel like there's still plenty happening around the place. And as I'm traveling around as part of the president role, I don't think any of it is just sitting around wondering what we're going to be doing tomorrow. So, because we do have clients that are doing things, whether that's they're investing, they're buying things, they're selling things. So I still have a fairly. Yeah. And I think comes down some of the numbers as well that, yeah, it does feel like the economy is doing reasonably well from what I've read so far, it doesn't feel like any of the Trump tariffs are going to have a big impact on the economy as a whole. They're not having impact on parts of the economy. I guess we're just waiting. Wait and see.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Scott, I just wanted your thoughts to. We've often talked about the impact of changes on the profession and compliance costs and regulation. We've still got labor shortages across the profession and that's really being felt by our members.
Scott Treatt, CTA
Absolutely. I think there's a couple of challenges around that one Robyn, them because we are seeing some firms having less graduaate intakes and that's not necessarily driven by demand. I think that's sometimes also driven by supply and quality of supply coming through. You look at the last ten years, student numbers coming through the social sciences and culture avenues and the management type spaces. Those that lead into accounting and law, etc., which drives tax as well. In terms of the student succession coming into the profession, it's dropping year on year. It continues to drop. And I think I've said previously in other webinars like, the impact of the regulation on the profession, right. And the perception that's there is also that impacting students decisions to go into that. And, you know, it's on us to to then try to keep tax sexy and ensure that students maximize the thought processes around coming through, because that supply is limited. That supplies is a key issue to be addressing.
Jonathon Ortner, FTI
I agree with that on. I think, you know, there's been reputational harm to the industry as a result of sort of past events and the regulatory burden that's been imposed is significant.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Yeah.
Jonathon Ortner, FTI
But then we've got the complexity of the tax regime. It is so hard at the moment.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Yes,
Jonathon Ortner, FTI
it it's acting as a disincentive for younger people to come into the industry. And it's a problem.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
And Scott, we talk tongue in cheek about it being sexy. We just love tax so much. So we just can’t understand why no one would want to be part of this. But in all seriousness, when we're competing with other sectors where a young person can become an influencer and has that public social media profile, why would they want to come into the tax professionals?
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
All right. So let's now start to do a bit of a deeper dive into some of the tax measures that were announced. So Jonathon, I’ll kick off with you, What's happening in the SME space. What are you hearing on the ground and where is the noise coming from.
Jonathon Ortner, FTI
So I think we still have to correct me if I'm wrong. Over 60 billion in undisputed.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Excited it's over 50 billion. Yeah over 50.
Jonathon Ortner, FTI
So obviously that and since the commissioner has come in last year, you know, that's a key part of his agenda, which is to collect that debt. And so I think many in the profession are seeing that starting to happen. Yeah, certainly. Then as a result, you're seeing stronger enforcement of directive penalty notices. Garnishee notices. There's less appetite to, you know, remit GRC or ASIC. In certainly instances where perhaps the ATO would have in the past in light cases. And you know, we're seeing certainly more aggressive a more aggressive ATO in their approach in audits. And objections and, and so that's, you know, obviously becoming difficult for the SME population to manage because the compliance cost for taxpayers is going up considerably.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Yeah.
Jonathon Ortner, FTI
Other issues that we're seeing on the ground, and it's no secret it's on the its website as sort of tax issues to, watch out for in the 2025 years family trust elections. I've been presenting on that, recently over the last year at the profit business retreat on the tech summit last year, it's becoming, an ever increasing problem, partly due to the sort of common fact that we've got blended families now, we've got the death of the test individual, we've got really complex private groups, and it's going far beyond, I think, what the rules were set up to deal with and mistakes are happening as a result. So we're seeing that manifest and come out and, you know, reviews as a result. What's on the tip of everyone's tongue I think, is Division 7A and Bendel. And you know, we've got the 2023 UPE’s which need to be dealt with now for, for lodgement day. And, and you know, everyone is asking, what do we do with that now that the ATO sort, you know, special leave to the High Court and, you know, what do we do around tax planning time for, for this current financial year? So happy to open that up as a discussion if we want to.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Absolutely. And it is worth reminding our members that yesterday we ran a live webinar with Fiona Dillon, Paul Sokolowski and Tracy Dunn. Fiona, of course, being the chief tax counsel at the ATO called being, the solicitor representing bindle in the full federal court. And Tracy, with a great deal of experience in this space. We unpacked all of this and we talked about, firstly, what does the decision mean? What do you do with the pre 2009 ups? What do you do with those that were managed through that intervening period of 2010 to 2022, and what do you do most importantly with the ups that need to be dealt with by the lodgement day coming up? So we'd certainly encourage our members to access that webinar. You can contact the Tax Institute. We'll look at that through the member webinar series that we've been running. But it's a really interesting situation, and I'm just interested in your thoughts. And yes, I recognize you do work for the firm that represented the case in a different state.
Jonathon Ortner, FTI
Whatever Paul’s thought are, are my thoughts.
Robyn Jacobson, CTA
Very diplomatically put. But it's a really interesting situation where we have a position that was taken by the ATO back in 2009, which they have stuck with all through these years, despite being controversial and many practitioners disagreeing with it. We've now got unanimous two members in the tribunal and three judges now in the full federal court, all finding in favour of the taxpayer. The commissioner. Yes, we know, has sought special leave from the High Court, and we are waiting to see whether that will be granted. But in the meantime, the interim decision impact statement makes it very clear that the ATO will be sticking with its current position. So the main question everyone is asking is legally, how can the ATO do this effectively? It looks like the disregarding full federal court case law while they pursue their appeal. And so people are trying to understand how does that work?
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